| Traditional Futures Contracts vs. Event Futures Contracts | ||
|---|---|---|
| Feature | Traditional Futures Contracts | Event Futures Contracts |
| Purpose | Risk management, price discovery, and investment diversification | Speculation, hedging event-specific risks, and information gathering |
| Underlying Asset | Commodities, currencies, financial instruments | Outcome of specific events (e.g., elections, album releases, weather temperature, unemployment rate) |
| Value Determination | Price changes in the underlying asset | The probability of the given event occurring |
| Primary Use | Hedging or speculation on the price of the underlying asset | Betting on the outcome of events is not directly tied to financial markets |
| Settlement | Physical delivery or cash settlement based on the price of the underlying asset | Binary outcome (pay out a predetermined amount if the event occurs, expire worthless if not) |
| Regulatory Perception | Considered a legitimate investment tool | Concerns it’s more akin to gambling and has no economic benefit |
| Traders | Investors, traders, hedgers, and speculators | Primarily speculators/ bettors |
| Relationship to Markets | Directly tied to financial markets and economic indicators | Not directly tied to financial markets; more influenced by public opinion, sentiment, and contingent outcomes like exact temperature degrees and inches of rain; also noncontingent events like CEO resignations and sporting events |
| Liquidity | Most markets have good liquidity, especially for major contracts | Lower liquidity compared with traditional futures; depends on the popularity of the event |
| Margin Requirements | Typically requires margin deposits to manage risk | Has low margin requirements since the contracts are often smaller in size |
| Risks | Market risk, counterparty risk, liquidity risk, and basis risk | Event outcome risk, political risk, regulatory risk, liquidity risk, insider trading |
Event Contracts Contentious History
There has been a long history of bans and restrictions on event contracts in the U.S. In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, “bucket shops” were where individuals placed bets on stock prices without owning the shares. These were eventually banned because of concerns about fraud and price manipulation. In the modern era, the CFTC has moved many times to halt efforts at trading what it believes are games of chance, which it defines as purely speculative and lacking any economic purpose.
In 2012, the North American Derivatives Exchange (Nadex), a designated contract market (DCM), listed political event contracts for the results of the different 2012 federal elections. However, the CFTC prohibited Nadex from listing these contracts, citing three main reasons, which remain relevant when the CFTC reviews proposals:
- The contracts involved “gaming,” which is prohibited under its Rule 40.11 (TAWGA), as some state statutes connect “gaming” and “gambling” to betting on elections. The CFTC regulation also “prohibits event contracts that reference terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, or an activity that is unlawful under any state or federal law… and that the CFTC determines by rule or regulation to be contrary to the public interest.”
- The contracts didn’t serve an economic purpose, as the economic consequences of an election are so unpredictable that the contracts could not reasonably be expected to be used for hedging purposes.
- The CFTC said the contracts were contrary to the public interest and could negatively affect the integrity of elections by providing incentives to vote in certain ways because of them.
It wasn’t until the late 2010s and early 2020s that regulators, often compelled by court decisions, allowed event futures contracts, with the CFTC granting DCM status to exchanges like Kalshi and PredictIt, marking a significant shift in the regulatory landscape.
Event Contracts Features
An event contract is typically $1.00 or $100 denominated: it pays $1/$100 if an event happens and $0 if it does not. Traders can buy event contracts at any price between $0 and $1 (or $0 and $100). The pricing of event contracts within that range is based on other speculators’ judgments on the likelihood of an event. For example, a contract priced at $0.70 suggests a 70% probability (as perceived by those trading) of the event occurring before the contract’s expiration.
Here are further features of event futures contracts:
- Expirations are event-driven: Instead of expiring on a fixed calendar date, event contracts expire based on the outcome of the underlying event.
- All-or-nothing payout: Event contracts have binary (yes/no) payouts equal to the total price of the contract if the event occurs or $0.00 if it doesn’t.
- Settlement daily: Event futures also settle daily in cash, based on whether the event happened on that date. New contracts are then listed for the following day.
- Capped risk: Given the definitive expiration once the event happens and daily settlements, the maximum risk is limited to the initial premium paid.
Which events are covered?
Here are just a few types of events listed on the relevant platforms:
- Central bank meetings: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, etc., rate decisions
- Entertainment: Which film will win the Academy Award, etc.
- Earnings releases: Quarterly corporate reports, earnings misses
- Macroeconomic data: Gross domestic product, inflation, consumer sentiment, etc.
- Regulatory decisions: Government/regulatory rulings
- Sporting events: You can wager which team will win the Super Bowl, World Series, etc.
- Weather: What will be the highest temperature in New York City this year? How much rain/snow will fall in Chicago before 5 p.m. today?
Pros and Cons of Event Contracts
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Access to event-driven volatility
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Limited risk exposure
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Portfolio diversification
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Simplicity and transparency
Benefits
It’s worth reviewing what proponents argue are the benefits of trading event futures:
Access to event-driven volatility: Elections, central bank meetings, economic data releases, and corporate earnings all drive heavy price swings. Events contracts let traders speculate on this volatility.
Limited risk exposure: The definitive expiration and daily cash settlement of event contracts allow traders to cap their potential risk exposure. The most a trader can lose is the premium initially paid to enter the contract.
Portfolio diversification: Because event contracts allow speculation on real-world outcomes, they could offer non-correlated returns distinct from typical asset classes like stocks and bonds.
Simplicity and transparency: Their most notable characteristic is their simplicity: It’s clear what the payoffs are and what triggers the expiration.
Drawbacks and risks
Here are several drawbacks, constraints, and areas of risk to consider:
Addiction: The gambling-like nature of event futures contracts, combined with their accessibility through online platforms and mobile apps, may lead to addictive behavior among some users. Like traditional gambling activities, the potential for quick profits and the excitement of betting on high-profile events can create a compulsive desire to trade these contracts.
Insider trading: Events such as whether a CEO will resign, a basketball player will score a certain number of points, and the timing of product releases are among the events susceptible, with enough money on the line, to entice those involved and other insiders to trade on that information.
Market unpredictability: Unexpected outcomes occur frequently, meaning event contracts carry unpredictable market risk.
Liquidity concerns: Since some event contract markets remain relatively new and untested, they pose some liquidity risks when few active parties are interested in a contract.
Volatility and slippage: Surprise news can trigger unpredictable swings, making events contracts susceptible to gapping prices and slippage in contract payouts. For instance, if news changes, a contract priced at $0.90 could easily fall to $0.10.
Threats to democratic processes: Kalshi has spent the early 2020s fighting the CFTC in court to offer election contracts. Groups like the Center for American Progress have strongly backed the CFTC’s efforts to block Kalshi’s efforts. In 2023, the center argued, “If there is the possibility of acquiring material gain with the result of an election, participants may interfere with the electoral process.”
Stop-loss orders are a crucial risk management tool. These can help limit potential losses by automatically closing out positions if the market moves against your positions.
How to Trade Events Futures Contracts
Here are the steps when trading event futures:
- Choose a reliable platform: Select a reputable futures exchange like the CME or an online broker.
- Open a brokerage account: Apply for a brokerage account and meet any specific trading-future requirements.
- Analyze and execute trades: Research upcoming events, analyze potential market impacts, and then place well-timed trades.
- Close out positions or wait for expiration: Prices will change as the likelihood of yes/no outcomes develop and approach maturity. You can either sell out of a contract before it expires or wait to see if you are correct and earn the full payout.
What Is the Difference Between Event Futures and Prediction Markets?
Event futures and prediction markets both involve speculating on the outcomes of future events. However, they operate in slightly different contexts and sometimes under different regulations.
Event futures are financial derivatives traded on regulated exchanges, primarily engaging those with a financial investment perspective. By contrast, prediction markets are broader in scope, offering speculative opportunities on events, including nonfinancial audiences. The regulatory oversight for prediction markets depends on whether they are viewed as gambling platforms, research tools, or financial instruments.
What Is the Difference Between Event Futures and Binary Options?
Event futures and binary options are both financial instruments that allow for speculation on the outcome of future events, but they differ significantly in payouts and regulatory environments. Binary options pay either a fixed monetary amount or nothing at all. Traders speculate on whether an underlying asset will be above or below a certain price at a specific time. Unlike event futures, binary options are tied to the price moves of assets like stocks, commodities, or currency pairs rather than external events.
What Were the First Event Contracts?
In more recent history, the establishment of formal prediction markets and the introduction of contracts based on political, economic, or other non-commodity outcomes have blurred the lines between gambling, speculation, and hedging strategies. An early and notable example of an organized market for event-based speculation is the Iowa Electronic Markets, formed in 1988 by the University of Iowa’s Tippie College of Business. The market continues to allow, for research purposes and with trading limits, people to buy and sell shares based on the outcomes of political elections, effectively operating as a prediction market.
The Bottom Line
Event futures, which have been banned for much of American history, allow participants to speculate on the outcomes of future events. Unlike traditional futures, which are based on commodity or asset prices, event futures hinge on the occurrence of specific events like market outcomes, economic data, sporting events, or entertainment award winners.
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