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A guest post by D Coyne
The EIA STEO was published recently. The estimate below is based on data from that report and statistics from the EIA International Energy Statistics. The EIA expects the 2018 peak for annual average World C+C output will be surpassed in 2025.
A number of charts have been pulled from the STEO report and are presented below.
This month, the EIA revised the 2022 global liquid fuels consumption data available in the International Energy Statistics, increasing the assessment of global oil consumption that year by nearly 0.8 million barrels per day (b/d) compared to last month’s STEO. The historic data serves as a baseline for the short-term forecasts, affecting the view of energy markets this year and next. This month’s revision to historic data, as well as current market dynamics, led to an increase in the forecasts for global oil consumption in 2024 and 2025 between 0.4 million b/d and 0.5 million b/d in both years.
Working natural gas in storage is forecast to be significantly above the 5-year average in 2024 and 2025, which may lead to relatively low natural gas prices in the US.
Note the large increase in net exports of natural gas from 2021 to 2025, roughly a 60% increase over 4 years, with most of this increase from liquified natural gas (LNG) exports.
The electricity generation chart on the right is more important in my view. Note that the increase in solar power output from 4% to 7% allows a reduction in coal power use from 17% to 14% over the 2023 to 2025 period.
The EIA expects Inflation to reach the 2% target in late 2024.
Most of the carbon emissions from the US are petroleum and natural gas emissions (over 80%).
The state oil output estimate for Texas and New Mexico in the Permian region matches the Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) closely through March 2023, note that this includes both tight and conventional oil. The Permian Novilabs estimate uses Novilabs Permian tight oil output through December 2022, the difference between state data and Novilabs data from Jan to December 2022 averaged 496 kb/d, and the estimate from Jan 2023 to Jan 2024 assumes conventional output is 496 kb/d (unchanged from previous 12 months). The trends for Permian regional output and Permian tight oil output are very similar from March 2021 to Jan 2024 at about 545 kb/d per year.
My most recent estimates for US tight oil (LTO) and World C+C output is that the EIA STEO has World C+C at about 83.9 Mb/d in 2025; my model has output peaking in 2027 and 2028 at about 700 kb/d less (83.2 Mb/d). Output falls to about the 2010 level of output by 2038 in this scenario, with World C+C output falling by about 10 Mb/d from 2029 to 2039.
Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.