Former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) failed at many things: building unity in his conference, making deals across the aisle, and, obviously, fending off the revolt that made him a former speaker.
In one crucial area, however, McCarthy was a legendary success: raising money.
The longtime GOP politician spent more than a decade and a half building a political machine that hauled in millions from big donors. His critics used this fact as ammunition against him, portraying him as a swampy corporate hack who would sell his principles to anyone paying top dollar. But his money engine unquestionably helped power Republicans to the House majority in 2022.
When Republicans booted McCarthy last year and elevated Mike Johnson to the speakership, some lawmakers believed they were getting a leader with more scruples. While the conference seems divided on that question, what’s painfully clear already is that the GOP got a leader with far less skill in scaring up valuable campaign dough.
According to federal campaign finance records, Johnson still has yet to match his predecessor’s fundraising success, specifically when it comes to boosting the most vulnerable incumbent Republicans.
McCarthy outraised Johnson on behalf of at-risk Republicans several times over, according to a Daily Beast analysis of the two men’s various campaign, joint fundraising, and leadership committees.
That discrepancy is most starkly reflected in the fundraising for members of the National Republican Congressional Committee’s Patriot Program—incumbents the GOP has deemed most vulnerable, especially ones running in districts President Joe Biden won in 2020.
Where McCarthy distributed upwards of $400,000 to some of those members last year, Johnson has given many of them just a fraction of that.
Take Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ), a freshman in a battleground district. Campaign finance data indicates he brought in roughly $459,000 from the various committees associated with McCarthy this cycle. Over the first three quarters of last year—the bulk of McCarthy’s time as speaker—the California Republican directed an average $145,000 per quarter to Ciscomani.
Compare that to the most recent two quarters under Johnson, whose average quarterly transfer to the Arizona Republican works out to just under $14,000.
Meanwhile, Federal Election Commission data indicates Johnson has distributed just over $28,000 to Ciscomani this cycle—about $16,000 through his joint fundraising committee, Grow the Majority; $10,000 through his leadership committee, American Revival PAC; and $2,000 through his campaign account.
It’s a similar story when it comes to Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-NY), another freshman in a battleground district. McCarthy steered an average of $193,000 over the first three quarters of last year. Johnson’s quarterly fundraising average for Molinaro is about $28,000.
The clear downgrade in fundraising capacity from McCarthy to Johnson could have potentially catastrophic effects for the House GOP as it seeks to defend its razor-thin majority this year.
The Trump-dominated Republican Party is already contending with a financial and leadership crisis that has signaled potential fallout for vulnerable congressional candidates. Where those candidates could previously depend on significant support from McCarthy, the late-game switch to Johnson knocked yet another fundraising leg out from underneath them.
Of course, Johnson—who was first elected in 2016 and had only a peripheral leadership role until last year—hasn’t had years to nourish the profitable relationships his predecessor built and could improve drastically in the future. But with just six months to go before the election, House Republicans may struggle to hold their majority unless he catches up quickly.
As Republicans told The Daily Beast, the dollars provided by their speaker are incredibly valuable in an election year like 2024.
“When there is not a Republican president in office, the No. 1 political fundraising draw is the Speaker of the House,” GOP strategist Ken Spain told the Daily Beast.
“McCarthy was a money machine,” GOP donor Eric Levine told the Daily Beast. “He just had a great talent for it.”
Levine observed that the acrimonious circumstances of Johnson’s ascension may have made it even harder for him to build financial bridges.
“I think the other thing is people were really, really angry—I know I was—when the speaker was vacated and he was removed,” Levine said. “So donors were going to take it out naturally on whoever was next.”
Johnson’s team defended the speaker’s performance—and acknowledged the challenge at hand—in a statement to The Daily Beast.
“Since October, Speaker Johnson has built a team from the ground up, traveled to 25 states, and contributed millions directly to Republican campaign accounts across the country,” wrote Johnson’s campaign spokesman. “His most recent quarter with over $20 million raised demonstrates the Speaker’s success and commitment to growing the majority.”
Like other setbacks for the financially troubled GOP, former President Donald Trump has something to do with the House cash crunch.
When McCarthy faced a revolt last October, Trump declined to intervene to save him, despite the obvious political consequences of losing the party’s best fundraiser. While it’s unclear how much the former president could have done to prevent his ouster, Trump has been far more proactive when it comes to Johnson, appearing alongside the speaker and praising his efforts even amid GOP backlash.
The parameters of replacing McCarthy were also tight; the party needed someone Trump-approved who had credibility among both conservatives and moderates. After three weeks of maneuvering and failed votes, the job finally fell to Johnson, a politician with little national experience or name recognition.
The fact that Republicans were forced to install a relatively low-level member of GOP leadership—and who, unlike McCarthy, had not built out a wide donor network as he moved up the ranks—could come back to bite them.
In addition to being a campaign cash rainmaker in general, McCarthy’s impact was most pronounced in a state that could decide the House majority: his home state of California, which will see numerous competitive races this year.
The Golden State is something of a golden egg for campaign cash, and McCarthy had long used his connections to help raise money for other members of the delegation. Since he was removed as speaker, nearly all the vulnerable California Republicans in the House have seen a decline in their average quarterly contributions.
Spain, who was an NRCC staffer when McCarthy arrived in Congress, recalled how the congressman leveraged his relationships in California from the very beginning.
“He was raising money for House Republicans on the first day,” Spain said. “He was the minority leader in the California Legislature right before he arrived. So he was an experienced fundraiser even before arriving in Congress.”
Previously this cycle, McCarthy directed boatloads of cash to vulnerable California members, like Rep. Michelle Steel (R-CA), who represents a plurality Asian American district in Orange County. In the first three quarters of last year, Steel received an average of $147,000 from McCarthy each quarter; Johnson’s quarterly average as speaker is only $17,000.
But Ciscomani, Molinaro, and Steel are lucky Johnson is helping them as much as he is. Though the speaker has dutifully doled out cash to the NRCC’s Patriots, he has given only a token amount to other Republicans on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s target list—as little as $1,000 each. McCarthy, meanwhile, had given these candidates much more; sometimes, over 100 times more.
There is at least one member who Johnson has boosted financially more than McCarthy. That’s Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL), who brought in $65,000 from Johnson and only $12,000 from McCarthy this cycle. That works out to a quarterly average of about $32,000 from Johnson while he served as speaker and about $4,000 from McCarthy while he did.
Johnson appears to be working to make up some of his fundraising shortfalls, however. According to reporting from the Washington Post, Johnson recently took a victory lap in a call with billionaires who fund the GOP, touting the foreign aid bill passed last month and promising he’ll hold on to his gavel. He’s also touring the country to get face time with the megadonors who are just getting to know him.
“People like to donate money to winners,” Levine told the Daily Beast. “Now that he’s demonstrated leadership, I think you’“”ll see a shift. I don’t think he’ll ever get to the level—maybe he will—but I don’t think he’ll ever get to the level of McCarthy. But there’s no shame in that. McCarthy was just in a class of his own in terms of raising money. But I think you’ll start seeing a significant uptick.”
Making the task even more difficult is that Johnson is looking to ramp up fundraising while the threat of losing his job hangs over him. But unlike McCarthy, Johnson is expected to be able to count on support from Democrats to keep his job. Johnson also has credibility with his party’s conservative wing, and support from Trump, who has recently stood by his side. Donors are starting to view him more optimistically, too.
“I think if he continues to govern and get things accomplished, I think that’ll give a lot of people a lot of comfort,” Levine added. “I think if he comes out in support of mainstream Republicans and if he speaks out against the Marjorie Taylor Greenes, Matt Gaetzes, and Bob Goods of the world, I think he would do himself a lot of good. In the group that I move in … there is unanimity that we hate these people, that we wish they would go away, and he would do himself a service, at least in my group, if he continues to stand up to them.”
Along with distrust across the aisle, McCarthy’s fundraising prowess was part of what ultimately did the former speaker in, with Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) leading the charge against him.
“He’s the product of a corrupt system that rewards people who collect large sums of special interest money and then redistribute that money in exchange for political loyalty and political favors,” Gaetz told reporters at the time.
Vulnerable Republicans did start the year with tons of campaign cash, thanks in part to coffers filled during the former speaker’s tenure. For the majority of them, their cash on hand at the end of the first quarter exceeded that of their challengers. And Republicans are quick to note that Democrats have historically outraised them, but that they’ve often managed to pick up seats anyway.
“Our swing-district incumbents continue to stack the cash they’ll need to beat their extreme Democrat challengers,” NRCC National Press Secretary Will Reinert wrote in a statement to the Daily Beast.
But going forward, the concerns about fundraising that began bubbling up when McCarthy was deposed are looking more like premonitions.
“Nobody can raise money like him,” Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-ND) said of McCarthy days after he was ousted. “And no matter who is the next Speaker of the House, none of them can do what Kevin McCarthy did.”